[October 19, 2019]
Download the work-in-progress model in excel here to play around 🙂
It’s been a while since I put together initial analysis and deck skeleton on Pinterest. However, I have some difficulties to convert my thesis (particularly business development and competition) into numeric assumptions and found it’s not easy to validate those assumptions. So I just built an initial model and decided to wait and see.
More detective works required to build up conviction and to determine margin of safety.
9/ Why can’t I use an earnings multiple and avoid uncertainty?
“With DCF models, the value is sensitive to the inputs. But the assumptions underlying the inputs are explicit. You can compare them to base rates and debate them. With multiples, those assumptions are buried….”
— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) 2019年10月19日