Tuya Smart (TUYA.US) – Note 0

I think Tuya's IoT Cloud is very interesting and might try to do some visualization. This note is for preparation purpose. [March 19th, 2021] Tuya Smart is a leading global IoT Cloud Platform that connects the intelligent needs of consumers, manufacturers, brands, OEMs, and retail chains. The platform provides developers with a one-stop IoT PaaS-level … Continue reading Tuya Smart (TUYA.US) – Note 0

JD Logistics – Note 1 (pre-hearing thoughts)

[March 11th, 2021] JD Logistics expects to list in Hong Kong. Some initial thoughts after skimming its prospectus. The characteristics of the business Heavy upfront/on-going investment in PP&E for logistics network and operating assets (a real asset & operation play)On-going investment in R&D for operating efficiency and capability (tech-driven) Labor intensive which might be a … Continue reading JD Logistics – Note 1 (pre-hearing thoughts)

17 Edu & Tech (YQ.US) – Note (pre-4Q20ER guess)

[March 8th, 2021] This is an exercise on guessing (no research on underlying) the 4Q20 result of 17 Education & Technology Group (YQ.US). The information is based on F-1 where the company disclosed their unaudited financial data of October 2019 and October 2020 (page 7). I think it's because the online education market in China … Continue reading 17 Edu & Tech (YQ.US) – Note (pre-4Q20ER guess)

Coupang (CPNG.US) – Note 1

[March 6, 2021] Some thoughts after skimming through S1 and The Generalist's briefing (Coupang: The Art of Obsession) * * * Coupang is a consumer internet company expanding verticals and gaining consumer's wallet share in South Korea. Coupang currently has 1P & 3P e-commerce business (with in-house logistics capacity), grocery offering, food delivery and digital … Continue reading Coupang (CPNG.US) – Note 1

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 2

[March 3rd, 2021] Model I put together a rough model to identify key lever. Most of assumptions are "reasonable" to me (my best guesses based on pattern without particular insights) so they might go wrong for many reasons (potential downside due to competition, execution...). The only parameter that might have substantial upside in the model … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 2

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 1

[March 1st, 2021] Dada Group is a local on-demand delivery and retail platform within JD.com's ecosystem. Retail platform The retail platform, JDDJ, adopts 3P-only marketplace model and focuses on categories (in terms of merchants and SKU) where the value of on-demand sub-vertical of e-commerce is higher than costs for demand side and supply side in … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 1

Rival Peak – Initial Thoughts

Background of Rival Peak Below is how Facebook describes Rival Peak and its trailer: Rival Peak is an experimental competition reality show, featuring artificially intelligent contestants whose fate is controlled by YOU, the viewing audience. You can interact with the real-time experience through an instant game right on Facebook.Rival Peak Official Website https://youtu.be/wjOyi-aV5Pk * * … Continue reading Rival Peak – Initial Thoughts

Free Fire – Preparation Traction

💡 This note shows some Free Fire user metrics disclosed in Sea's filings and earnings calls. Combined with financial data in Free Fire – Preparation Revenue Estimation, one monetization metric, average adjusted revenue per daily active user, is also calculated. I fill the note with my murmur. This post has a detailed Notion version. Series posts … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation Traction

Free Fire – Preparation Revenue Estimation

💡 This note tries to understand the traction of Free Fire. Generally, I would start with metrics which are more top of funnel such as downloads, number of active users, conversion, number of paying users or even engagement metrics. However, I was triggered by a Sensor Tower blog post the other day which mentioned Garena … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation Revenue Estimation

Free Fire – Preparation 02

💡 I don't have the luxury to get access to premium analytics so I start with some free information available online. This note follows Free Fire - Preparation 01 to collect Garena Free Fire public data and some initial thoughts. This post has a Notion version. Previous post: Free Fire - Preparation 01 Recent Data … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation 02

Free Fire – Preparation 01

💡 I analyze Free Fire not from a product perspective but from a platform business perspective. The key differences between two perspectives are the length of lifespan, the shape of life cycle in terms of revenue, and the optionality while both have some similar business model attributes such as live game (on-going operation, Game-as-a-Service) and … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation 01

Natural Food – Initial Thoughts

Natural Food (1837.HK) [August 30, 2019] Interim Results Announcement @ Conrad Background I was simply attracted by the brand name and guided by my preliminary China theme - consumption upgrade. Before attending the meeting, I thought Natural Food was doing something like what General Mill does... Initial Thoughts I didn't find anything that got me … Continue reading Natural Food – Initial Thoughts

Cosmo Lady – Initial Thoughts

Cosmo Lady (2298.HK) [August 29, 2019] Interim Results Announcement @ Mandarin Oriental Background I was attracted by the ugly stock price chart and had a feeling that the company might be struggling like other traditional retail players. Initial Thoughts As expected, the company is struggling and delivered terrible financial results in the first half of … Continue reading Cosmo Lady – Initial Thoughts