4Q2018 Review & 2019 Resolution

While I would not say it’s a productive quarter, overall there still have been some progresses during the first quarter since being solo.

[YuiNausicaa.com]

In addition to diary-style posts, I wrote 16 analysis-related posts in 4Q18 surrounding  the following topics:

  • Marketplace – Online / Offline
  • Gaming Console
  • Digital Distribution – Gaming
  • Network Effect
  • Hospitality
  • Tourism
  • Real Estate – Hotel Property
  • UGC

In terms specific company, I started / resumed the following companies during this quarter:

  • Nintendo (7974.JP / NTDOY)
  • Pingduoduo (PDD.US)
  • Mercari (4385.JP)
  • EPIC Games / Discord / Valve – STEAM
  • China Education Group Holdings Limited (839.HK)
    • No analysis on the blog yet as of December 31, 2018 while model and initial analysis are both in place.

[@yuinausicaa]

Number of follower has reached 105 as of this rewriting with roughly 20% being the target audience and less than 10% being the engaged audience. The follower base and the engagement is the reality for someone not being associated with institution and without track record. That said, I believe there are some positive feedback loops (increasing return) in the dynamic as analysis getting deeper, coverage getting broader, synergy among topics / specific companies being created and contents being accumulated. At the time being, I would focus on economy of scale and scope on the supply side to drive the whole process. Traffic / reader base / follower base are metrics to gauge the effect.

I am trying to follow the concept what Charlie Munger has introduced. Contents created and posted here are just stocks in the feedback loops.

[Book Reading]

I finished several technical/leisure books this quarter. Technical books center around platform and leisure books are mostly Japanese novels. Book reading is an input in the aforementioned feedback loops. I probably spent much more time on tweets, blog posts and podcasts.

Technical:

  • Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms
  • Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets Are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You (TW-Translation )
  • Modern Monopolies: What It Takes to Dominate the 21st Century Economy
  • Valuation of Network Effects in Software Markets: A Complex Networks Approach (some chapters)
  • The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You (some chapters)
  • Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (some chapters)
  • Platforms, Markets and Innovation (some chapters)
  • Data-Driven Marketing: The 15 Metrics Everyone in Marketing Should Know (some chapters)
  • Content Inc.: How Entrepreneurs Use Content to Build Massive Audiences and Create Radically Successful Businesses (some chapters)
  • Platform: Get Noticed in a Noisy World (some chapters)

Leisure:

  • 『ぼくは明日、昨日のきみとデートする』(TW-Translation)
  • 『よるのばけもの』(TW-Translation)
  • 『か「」く「」し「」ご「」と「』(TW-Translation)
  • 『また、同じ夢を見ていた』(TW-Translation)
  • 『天使は奇跡を希う』(TW-Translation)
  • 『裙長未及膝』

*  *  *  *  *

[2019 Resolution]

! Execution !

Kyoto Day 1 – Dec. 6, 2018

The second day I took a train from Kobe to Kyoto.

After checking in Hotel The Celestine Kyoto Gion, I had late lunch at Mametora Gion which specializes in small dishes cuisines. The environment there was quite comfortable in terms of distance between tables and interior styling & lighting. As it is supposedly to be, the presentation of dishes was great and taste was ordinary ( for me, the taste of this kind of cuisine is never the highlight in the dining experience).

The restaurant of my first dinner in Kyoto was a local store recommended by the concierge of hotel. The food was edible but not delicate as its clientele base is probably the neighborhood round southern area of Kenninji. The area might be one of the most densely populated of Michilin-starred Japanese restaurants in the world but ordinary restaurants are still viable since there’s demand for casual dinning to be met.

As usual, I had gyoza at Senmonten (泉門天) as my main late-night snack in Kyoto. I also had ramen at Tenkaippin as supplementary but it turned out that I’m not a fan of their style.

The release of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate / Special (JP) is the highlight of this trip. As expected nothing special happened on Hanamikoji Dori in Gion.

I was so bored in the hotel that I watched live streaming gameplay of SSBU on Youtube. While I think  gaming is one of my tracking industry, this was my first time to watch live streaming gameplay. To my surprise, it’s quite satisfying and healing to watch the gameplay when the host is shown as anime-style character with cute voice in tandem with facial / body expression.

I will further explore the economics on gaming, eSport and video / music streaming after going back to Taiwan.

Week 8 – Production Plan

[Dec. 3, 2018]

* Tasks to be done *

~ Dec. 3-9, 2018 ~

  • Initial Analysis: Sea Group (SE.US) / GrubHub (GRUB.US) / Stich Fix (SFIX.US) / Upwork (UPWK.US) / BabyTree (1763.HK)
  • Update & Follow: China Education Group Holding (839.HK) / PDD.US
  • Travel Documentation: JP trips and HK & SZ
  • 1 Idea from Analyst Meeting
  • Hotel Review in Mandarin: This time and previous trips
  • Hotel Analysis: Millennium Mistui Garden Tokyo Deal
  • Events: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Release / The Game Awards 2018 / Arts Economics Kyoto
  • Weekly Topic: Week of Metrics and Network Effect
  • Reading:  Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms by David S. Evans and Richard Schmalensee and another 1 technical

~ Note ~

For the next 2 weeks, my focus is on listed marketplace companies. Hopefully I can generate 3 notes on new names.

I need to get some progress on Sea Group Initial Analysis!

Week 7 – Production Plan

[Nov. 26, 2018]

* Tasks to be done *

~ Nov. 26-Dec.2, 2018 ~

  • Initial Analysis: Sea Group (SE.US) / GrubHub (GRUB.US) / Stich Fix (SFIX.US) / Upwork (UPWK.US)
  • Travel Documentation: Japan and HK & SZ
  • 1 Idea from Analyst Meeting
  • Hotel Review: 2
  • Hotel Analysis: Millennium Mistui Garden Tokyo Deal and Forecasting Exercise on Tainan Crowne Plaza
  • Reading: 2 technical

~ Note ~

It seems there’s no progression on the tourism/hospitality and real estate related posts. Not sure I’m prioritization or procrastinating.

For the next 2 weeks, my focus is on listed marketplace companies. Hopefully I can generate 3 notes on new names.

Week 6 – Production Plan

[Nov. 19, 2018]

* Tasks to be done *

~ Nov. 19-25, 2018 ~

  • Initial Analysis: Mercari / Kakaku
  • Travel Documentation: Japan and HK & SZ
  • 1 Idea from Analyst Meeting
  • Hotel Review: 2
  • Hotel Analysis: Millennium Mistui Garden Tokyo Deal and Forecasting Exercise on Tainan
  • Reading: 1 technical and 1 leisure
  • Travel Plan: Kobe/Kyoto/Osaka in early December
  • Corporate Event
    • ER Concall: BZUN.US / PDD.US / JG.US
    • Board Meeting: 839.HK