4Q2018 Review & 2019 Resolution

While I would not say it’s a productive quarter, overall there still have been some progresses during the first quarter since being solo.


In addition to diary-style posts, I wrote 16 analysis-related posts in 4Q18 surrounding  the following topics:

  • Marketplace – Online / Offline
  • Gaming Console
  • Digital Distribution – Gaming
  • Network Effect
  • Hospitality
  • Tourism
  • Real Estate – Hotel Property
  • UGC

In terms specific company, I started / resumed the following companies during this quarter:

  • Nintendo (7974.JP / NTDOY)
  • Pingduoduo (PDD.US)
  • Mercari (4385.JP)
  • EPIC Games / Discord / Valve – STEAM
  • China Education Group Holdings Limited (839.HK)
    • No analysis on the blog yet as of December 31, 2018 while model and initial analysis are both in place.


Number of follower has reached 105 as of this rewriting with roughly 20% being the target audience and less than 10% being the engaged audience. The follower base and the engagement is the reality for someone not being associated with institution and without track record. That said, I believe there are some positive feedback loops (increasing return) in the dynamic as analysis getting deeper, coverage getting broader, synergy among topics / specific companies being created and contents being accumulated. At the time being, I would focus on economy of scale and scope on the supply side to drive the whole process. Traffic / reader base / follower base are metrics to gauge the effect.

I am trying to follow the concept what Charlie Munger has introduced. Contents created and posted here are just stocks in the feedback loops.

[Book Reading]

I finished several technical/leisure books this quarter. Technical books center around platform and leisure books are mostly Japanese novels. Book reading is an input in the aforementioned feedback loops. I probably spent much more time on tweets, blog posts and podcasts.


  • Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms
  • Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets Are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You (TW-Translation )
  • Modern Monopolies: What It Takes to Dominate the 21st Century Economy
  • Valuation of Network Effects in Software Markets: A Complex Networks Approach (some chapters)
  • The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You (some chapters)
  • Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (some chapters)
  • Platforms, Markets and Innovation (some chapters)
  • Data-Driven Marketing: The 15 Metrics Everyone in Marketing Should Know (some chapters)
  • Content Inc.: How Entrepreneurs Use Content to Build Massive Audiences and Create Radically Successful Businesses (some chapters)
  • Platform: Get Noticed in a Noisy World (some chapters)


  • 『ぼくは明日、昨日のきみとデートする』(TW-Translation)
  • 『よるのばけもの』(TW-Translation)
  • 『か「」く「」し「」ご「」と「』(TW-Translation)
  • 『また、同じ夢を見ていた』(TW-Translation)
  • 『天使は奇跡を希う』(TW-Translation)
  • 『裙長未及膝』

*  *  *  *  *

[2019 Resolution]

! Execution !

Week 7 – Review

Again, while the production plan had many to-do items, I only finished a few in the 3nd production week. Not very productive as usual.

* Week 7 – Review *


Initial Analysis & Resume Following

Random Thoughts, Review, & Reflection

Research Management

  • Research focus expanded: UGC



  • Restaurants in Kobe


  • Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets Are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You (TW-Translation )

Week 6 – Review

Again, while the production plan had many to-do items, I only finished a few in the 2nd production week. Was it still not very productive?

* Week 6 – Review *


Initial Analysis & Follow up

Research Management

  • Research focus decided: marketplaces


  • Several earnings releases
  • Temporary business card made



Week 5 – Review

While the production plan had many to-do items, I only finished a few in the 1st production week. It seems not very productive?

* Week 5 – Review *


Initial Analysis

  • Pinduoduo (PDD.US): Analysis note / Model
  • China Education Group Holdings (839.HK): Model

Research Management

  • Internet names to research selected


  • Second Off-Shore Brokerage Account Setup
  • Portobell Diary


  • ぼくは明日、昨日のきみとデートする』(TW-Translation )

4-Week Review: Oct. 13 – Nov. 9, 2018

[Nov. 10, 2018]

*Weekly schedule & result*

  • Week 1: IT system setup / planning / few analysis posted
  • Week 2-3: Japan trip / hotel site visits / few diary kept
  • Week 4: HK & SZ conference / found few candidates for further investment research /a pre-thesis posted

*Research pipeline and topics collected in past four weeks*

  • Hotel review
    • Millennium Mitsui Garden Hotel Tokyo – Hotel review in Mandarin (HRM) / in English and deal review
    • Hotel Gracery Sanjo Kyoto – HRM and Review Hotel Gracery & WHG
    • hotel androoms Homachi – HRM and REIT review & hotel management company review
    • 8 hotel – HRM
    • Kai Atami – HRM
    • OMO5 Otsuka – HRM and REIT review
    • Futian Shnagri-La – HRM and Review of Kerry
    • iClub Sheung Wan – HRM and REIT review
  • Activist ideas
    • Oasis Capital Management
    • Third point
  • Portfolio company related
    • Nintendo 2Q briefing and Q&A review
  • Public Equity
    • China Education Group Holdings
    • China Dongxiang
    • Wuxi Biologics
    • Fosun International
    • Ideas from analyst meeting and names from a friend
  • Hotel Analysis
    • Forecasting exercise – Tainan Crowne Plaza in 2013
    • Tainan Crowne Plaza – Hotel Review
  • Travel Documentation