4Q2018 Review & 2019 Resolution

While I would not say it’s a productive quarter, overall there still have been some progresses during the first quarter since being solo.

[YuiNausicaa.com]

In addition to diary-style posts, I wrote 16 analysis-related posts in 4Q18 surrounding  the following topics:

  • Marketplace – Online / Offline
  • Gaming Console
  • Digital Distribution – Gaming
  • Network Effect
  • Hospitality
  • Tourism
  • Real Estate – Hotel Property
  • UGC

In terms specific company, I started / resumed the following companies during this quarter:

  • Nintendo (7974.JP / NTDOY)
  • Pingduoduo (PDD.US)
  • Mercari (4385.JP)
  • EPIC Games / Discord / Valve – STEAM
  • China Education Group Holdings Limited (839.HK)
    • No analysis on the blog yet as of December 31, 2018 while model and initial analysis are both in place.

[@yuinausicaa]

Number of follower has reached 105 as of this rewriting with roughly 20% being the target audience and less than 10% being the engaged audience. The follower base and the engagement is the reality for someone not being associated with institution and without track record. That said, I believe there are some positive feedback loops (increasing return) in the dynamic as analysis getting deeper, coverage getting broader, synergy among topics / specific companies being created and contents being accumulated. At the time being, I would focus on economy of scale and scope on the supply side to drive the whole process. Traffic / reader base / follower base are metrics to gauge the effect.

I am trying to follow the concept what Charlie Munger has introduced. Contents created and posted here are just stocks in the feedback loops.

[Book Reading]

I finished several technical/leisure books this quarter. Technical books center around platform and leisure books are mostly Japanese novels. Book reading is an input in the aforementioned feedback loops. I probably spent much more time on tweets, blog posts and podcasts.

Technical:

  • Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms
  • Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets Are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You (TW-Translation )
  • Modern Monopolies: What It Takes to Dominate the 21st Century Economy
  • Valuation of Network Effects in Software Markets: A Complex Networks Approach (some chapters)
  • The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You (some chapters)
  • Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (some chapters)
  • Platforms, Markets and Innovation (some chapters)
  • Data-Driven Marketing: The 15 Metrics Everyone in Marketing Should Know (some chapters)
  • Content Inc.: How Entrepreneurs Use Content to Build Massive Audiences and Create Radically Successful Businesses (some chapters)
  • Platform: Get Noticed in a Noisy World (some chapters)

Leisure:

  • 『ぼくは明日、昨日のきみとデートする』(TW-Translation)
  • 『よるのばけもの』(TW-Translation)
  • 『か「」く「」し「」ご「」と「』(TW-Translation)
  • 『また、同じ夢を見ていた』(TW-Translation)
  • 『天使は奇跡を希う』(TW-Translation)
  • 『裙長未及膝』

*  *  *  *  *

[2019 Resolution]

! Execution !

Week 7 – Review

Again, while the production plan had many to-do items, I only finished a few in the 3nd production week. Not very productive as usual.

* Week 7 – Review *

[2018/12/3]

Initial Analysis & Resume Following

Random Thoughts, Review, & Reflection

Research Management

  • Research focus expanded: UGC

Operation

Travel

  • Restaurants in Kobe

Reading

  • Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets Are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You (TW-Translation )

Week 6 – Review

Again, while the production plan had many to-do items, I only finished a few in the 2nd production week. Was it still not very productive?

* Week 6 – Review *

[2018/11/26]

Initial Analysis & Follow up

Research Management

  • Research focus decided: marketplaces

Operation

  • Several earnings releases
  • Temporary business card made

Travel

Reading

Week 5 – Review

While the production plan had many to-do items, I only finished a few in the 1st production week. It seems not very productive?

* Week 5 – Review *

[2018/11/19]

Initial Analysis

  • Pinduoduo (PDD.US): Analysis note / Model
  • China Education Group Holdings (839.HK): Model

Research Management

  • Internet names to research selected

Operation

  • Second Off-Shore Brokerage Account Setup
  • Portobell Diary

Reading

  • ぼくは明日、昨日のきみとデートする』(TW-Translation )

4-Week Review: Oct. 13 – Nov. 9, 2018

[Nov. 10, 2018]

*Weekly schedule & result*

  • Week 1: IT system setup / planning / few analysis posted
  • Week 2-3: Japan trip / hotel site visits / few diary kept
  • Week 4: HK & SZ conference / found few candidates for further investment research /a pre-thesis posted

*Research pipeline and topics collected in past four weeks*

  • Hotel review
    • Millennium Mitsui Garden Hotel Tokyo – Hotel review in Mandarin (HRM) / in English and deal review
    • Hotel Gracery Sanjo Kyoto – HRM and Review Hotel Gracery & WHG
    • hotel androoms Homachi – HRM and REIT review & hotel management company review
    • 8 hotel – HRM
    • Kai Atami – HRM
    • OMO5 Otsuka – HRM and REIT review
    • Futian Shnagri-La – HRM and Review of Kerry
    • iClub Sheung Wan – HRM and REIT review
  • Activist ideas
    • Oasis Capital Management
    • Third point
  • Portfolio company related
    • Nintendo 2Q briefing and Q&A review
  • Public Equity
    • China Education Group Holdings
    • China Dongxiang
    • Wuxi Biologics
    • Fosun International
    • Ideas from analyst meeting and names from a friend
  • Hotel Analysis
    • Forecasting exercise – Tainan Crowne Plaza in 2013
    • Tainan Crowne Plaza – Hotel Review
  • Travel Documentation