Roblox – Updated Charts

I update the slide with 4Q20 data in latest S1. Direct listing of Roblox will be interesting because market appetite has shifted in last two weeks and the underlying business of Roblox seems to be normalizing this year based on company's expectation (conservative?). Roblox has strong cash flow and just raised a private round so … Continue reading Roblox – Updated Charts

Roblox – IPO Note 1

I just skimmed Roblox S-1. As there will be many S-1 teardown and takes on the internet, I only write down high-level thoughts that I still remember without checking the document again. I might put together a simple model and charts later. * * * [November 22nd, 2020] What is Roblox? Roblox is a User-Generated … Continue reading Roblox – IPO Note 1

Unity – IPO Note 2

Unity filed S-1/A yesterday so now we have a better grasp on pricing. I'm not going to do a sensitivity analysis table which shows the relationship between market capitalization, estimated revenue / revenue growth and the multiple since FinTwit has done a great job. https://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1303734544068038656?s=20 @jaminball Since it's typical for IPO stock to pop, what … Continue reading Unity – IPO Note 2

Unity – IPO Note

💡 This note is NOT an advice for making any investment decisions. Data in this note is hand-collected so it's recommended to double check your data provider and S-1. The content here is my intellectual exercise so it might deviate from reality substantially and should be different from typical S-1 tear-down or IPO snapshot (hopefully … Continue reading Unity – IPO Note

Thoughts on Unity and Game Engine before Unity IPO

If you still click the tweet T+N days after Unity S-1 was filed, I bet you have already checked Fintwit threads and relevant information on the stock so I would just skip S-1 summaries, comp table/chart on SaaS metrics, or historical financials. If you haven't checked those information, I collect stuff I believe informative in … Continue reading Thoughts on Unity and Game Engine before Unity IPO

Free Fire – Preparation Traction

💡 This note shows some Free Fire user metrics disclosed in Sea's filings and earnings calls. Combined with financial data in Free Fire – Preparation Revenue Estimation, one monetization metric, average adjusted revenue per daily active user, is also calculated. I fill the note with my murmur. This post has a detailed Notion version. Series posts … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation Traction

Free Fire – Preparation Revenue Estimation

💡 This note tries to understand the traction of Free Fire. Generally, I would start with metrics which are more top of funnel such as downloads, number of active users, conversion, number of paying users or even engagement metrics. However, I was triggered by a Sensor Tower blog post the other day which mentioned Garena … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation Revenue Estimation

Free Fire – Preparation 02

💡 I don't have the luxury to get access to premium analytics so I start with some free information available online. This note follows Free Fire - Preparation 01 to collect Garena Free Fire public data and some initial thoughts. This post has a Notion version. Previous post: Free Fire - Preparation 01 Recent Data … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation 02

Free Fire – Preparation 01

💡 I analyze Free Fire not from a product perspective but from a platform business perspective. The key differences between two perspectives are the length of lifespan, the shape of life cycle in terms of revenue, and the optionality while both have some similar business model attributes such as live game (on-going operation, Game-as-a-Service) and … Continue reading Free Fire – Preparation 01

Sea’s Garena Snapshot

Some Sea's Digital Entertainment charts for housekeeping purpose. User Base Monetization Margin Profile Talking Points in DE Fully self-developed game, Free Fire, launched on iOS App Store & Google Play Store on December 4, 2017. Free Fire is a battle royale type of mobile game developed in-house by Garena. Daily active user (DAU) from over … Continue reading Sea’s Garena Snapshot

Astral Chain – Social Analytics Exercise on Game Release

Click the tweet below to see the whole thread of tracking Astral Chain. Initial adoption of #AstralChain #アストラルチェイン will be excellent as it's highlight of August for #Nintendo. This #NintendoSwitch exclusive new IP will do well overall. The success of #FireEmblemThreeHouses helps. Both will help release of Dragon Quest XI S in September. — Yui … Continue reading Astral Chain – Social Analytics Exercise on Game Release

Fire Emblem: Three Houses – Social Analytics Exercise on Game Release

Click the tweet below to see the whole thread of tracking Fire Emblem: Three Houses. #FireEmblemAwakening had sold ~1.93M units by end of Jun 2015. I expect #FireEmblemThreeHouses to do much better as social media will help initial adoption and subsequent word-of-mouth. #Nintendo #NintendoSwitch pic.twitter.com/fKLjas3BrL — Yui Nausicaa (@yuinausicaa) 2019年7月20日