[March 12th, 2021] One of my concern in 4Q20 is the decreased contribution margin (%) due to rising operations and support costs probably driven by competition. I believe the change of accounting treatment on last-mile delivery service provided to JD Logistics will have "some" impact on topline (-) and contribution margin (+). There's no impact … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 4 (4Q20 Charts)
[March 10th, 2021] DaDa reported 4Q20 results and held earnings call yesterday. Review of my projection DaDa Now There's link error in my growth driver cell of TTM Orders Delivered (M)Monetization for Ordered Delivered was better than expectation. Trajectory can be revised upward. JDDJ The traction of TTM Active Consumers looks fine. I was too … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 3 (4Q20ER)
[March 3rd, 2021] Model I put together a rough model to identify key lever. Most of assumptions are "reasonable" to me (my best guesses based on pattern without particular insights) so they might go wrong for many reasons (potential downside due to competition, execution...). The only parameter that might have substantial upside in the model … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 2
[March 1st, 2021] Dada Group is a local on-demand delivery and retail platform within JD.com's ecosystem. Retail platform The retail platform, JDDJ, adopts 3P-only marketplace model and focuses on categories (in terms of merchants and SKU) where the value of on-demand sub-vertical of e-commerce is higher than costs for demand side and supply side in … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 1
Comments on data in F-1: Yatsen has been growing very fast and the revenue contribution is getting more balanced or diversified in terms of channel, brand and product as the company launches and acquires more brands. It seems the company is quite aggressive on acquisition so the future growth will be relatively difficult to project. … Continue reading Yatsen – Quick Cal.
I just skimmed the F1 of Yatsen Holding Limited (YSG.US). The stock is expected to list on NYSE on November 19th, 2020. I used to summarize S1/F1 but now I notice there are many participants doing similar stuff and even large part of broker's PDIE deck is just a summary of F1 in PPT. Thus, … Continue reading Yatsen – IPO Note
Once you have a model, you can play around numbers and make some guess on quarterly results. My first guess on Frog's first earnings below. Will revisit the difference after the earnings release. Hopefully, this process improves my predictive power on this specific company over time. I don't have consensus numbers so will need to … Continue reading JFrog – Guess FY3Q20
[October 31st, 2020 ] It will be interesting to see this high multiple stock to report its first earnings after IPO during this turbulent period so I put together an earnings model to have a reference point. You can download excel via link or google drive below. us_frog_20201031下載 What I would like to see is … Continue reading JFrog – Model 20201031
[October 27th, 2020] JFrog has been doing quite well since its IPO in mid September. In the first 10 trading days, it doubled from its IPO price of $44/share and gained 50% from close of the second day of trading. Due to limited free flow before lock-up expiration, the stock has been quite volatile. Technically, … Continue reading JFrog – Note 20201027
💡 Intellectual exercise only. Don't take the projection seriously. JFrog recorded accounting profit in the last quarter. The company has been cashflow positive for a while. The business is a typical software business which enjoys high gross margin. Once the business breaks even, the operating leverage might kick in faster than consensus expects because people … Continue reading JFrog – Quick Cal.
Unity filed S-1/A yesterday so now we have a better grasp on pricing. I'm not going to do a sensitivity analysis table which shows the relationship between market capitalization, estimated revenue / revenue growth and the multiple since FinTwit has done a great job. https://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1303734544068038656?s=20 @jaminball Since it's typical for IPO stock to pop, what … Continue reading Unity – IPO Note 2
Wendy's (WEN.US) [October 29, 2019] * Breakfast Relaunch Modeling * Download the spreadsheet here to play around. The reason why I add this page which increases the friction and might affect "conversion" is that I'd like to know where the audience comes from. On September 9th, 2019, Wendy’s announced plans to launch breakfast across the … Continue reading Wendy’s – Breakfast Relaunch Modeling
Pinterest (PINS.US) [October 19, 2019] Initial Model Download the work-in-progress model in excel here to play around 🙂 It's been a while since I put together initial analysis and deck skeleton on Pinterest. However, I have some difficulties to convert my thesis (particularly business development and competition) into numeric assumptions and found it's not easy … Continue reading Pinterest – Initial Model
Cosmo Lady (2298.HK) [August 29, 2019] Interim Results Announcement @ Mandarin Oriental Background I was attracted by the ugly stock price chart and had a feeling that the company might be struggling like other traditional retail players. Initial Thoughts As expected, the company is struggling and delivered terrible financial results in the first half of … Continue reading Cosmo Lady – Initial Thoughts
Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [August 28, 2019 ] Interim Result Announcement @ Four Seasons Background The first time I looked at this stock was several years ago when I was doing internship in Hong Kong. Someone in the team registered the site visit but figured out the company was "not interesting" so the trip was left … Continue reading Evergrande Group – Initial Thoughts