DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 4 (4Q20 Charts)

[March 12th, 2021] One of my concern in 4Q20 is the decreased contribution margin (%) due to rising operations and support costs probably driven by competition. I believe the change of accounting treatment on last-mile delivery service provided to JD Logistics will have "some" impact on topline (-) and contribution margin (+). There's no impact … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 4 (4Q20 Charts)

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 3 (4Q20ER)

[March 10th, 2021] DaDa reported 4Q20 results and held earnings call yesterday. Review of my projection DaDa Now There's link error in my growth driver cell of TTM Orders Delivered (M)Monetization for Ordered Delivered was better than expectation. Trajectory can be revised upward. JDDJ The traction of TTM Active Consumers looks fine. I was too … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 3 (4Q20ER)

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 2

[March 3rd, 2021] Model I put together a rough model to identify key lever. Most of assumptions are "reasonable" to me (my best guesses based on pattern without particular insights) so they might go wrong for many reasons (potential downside due to competition, execution...). The only parameter that might have substantial upside in the model … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 2

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 1

[March 1st, 2021] Dada Group is a local on-demand delivery and retail platform within JD.com's ecosystem. Retail platform The retail platform, JDDJ, adopts 3P-only marketplace model and focuses on categories (in terms of merchants and SKU) where the value of on-demand sub-vertical of e-commerce is higher than costs for demand side and supply side in … Continue reading DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 1

Yatsen – Quick Cal.

Comments on data in F-1: Yatsen has been growing very fast and the revenue contribution is getting more balanced or diversified in terms of channel, brand and product as the company launches and acquires more brands. It seems the company is quite aggressive on acquisition so the future growth will be relatively difficult to project. … Continue reading Yatsen – Quick Cal.

JFrog – Quick Cal.

💡 Intellectual exercise only. Don't take the projection seriously. JFrog recorded accounting profit in the last quarter. The company has been cashflow positive for a while. The business is a typical software business which enjoys high gross margin. Once the business breaks even, the operating leverage might kick in faster than consensus expects because people … Continue reading JFrog – Quick Cal.

Unity – IPO Note 2

Unity filed S-1/A yesterday so now we have a better grasp on pricing. I'm not going to do a sensitivity analysis table which shows the relationship between market capitalization, estimated revenue / revenue growth and the multiple since FinTwit has done a great job. https://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1303734544068038656?s=20 @jaminball Since it's typical for IPO stock to pop, what … Continue reading Unity – IPO Note 2

Wendy’s – Breakfast Relaunch Modeling

Wendy's (WEN.US) [October 29, 2019] * Breakfast Relaunch Modeling * Download the spreadsheet here to play around. The reason why I add this page which increases the friction and might affect "conversion" is that I'd like to know where the audience comes from. On September 9th, 2019, Wendy’s announced plans to launch breakfast across the … Continue reading Wendy’s – Breakfast Relaunch Modeling

Pinterest – Initial Model

Pinterest (PINS.US) [October 19, 2019] Initial Model Download the work-in-progress model in excel here to play around 🙂 It's been a while since I put together initial analysis and deck skeleton on Pinterest. However, I have some difficulties to convert my thesis (particularly business development and competition) into numeric assumptions and found it's not easy … Continue reading Pinterest – Initial Model

Cosmo Lady – Initial Thoughts

Cosmo Lady (2298.HK) [August 29, 2019] Interim Results Announcement @ Mandarin Oriental Background I was attracted by the ugly stock price chart and had a feeling that the company might be struggling like other traditional retail players. Initial Thoughts As expected, the company is struggling and delivered terrible financial results in the first half of … Continue reading Cosmo Lady – Initial Thoughts

Evergrande Group – Initial Thoughts

Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [August 28, 2019 ] Interim Result Announcement @ Four Seasons Background The first time I looked at this stock was several years ago when I was doing internship in Hong Kong. Someone in the team registered the site visit but figured out the company was "not interesting" so the trip was left … Continue reading Evergrande Group – Initial Thoughts