[March 3rd, 2021]
I put together a rough model to identify key lever. Most of assumptions are “reasonable” to me (my best guesses based on pattern without particular insights) so they might go wrong for many reasons (potential downside due to competition, execution…). The only parameter that might have substantial upside in the model is the average spend (TTM GMV / Active Consumer). I believe that average spend will go up for a long period of time but I’m not sure about the slope which depends on platform offering and consumer behavior.
Guidance & Consensus
The company gave 4Q20 top line guidance. The sell-side consensus is basically in-line with the guidance and even my number is very close to the lower bound of guidance. As for 1Q21, the top line should show some seasonality but if there are O2O trend and behavior change along with policy impact during Chinese New Year, I think it will have a better than normal seasonality in 1Q21.